THE CAMPAIGN – AT 9:14 A.M. ET:  I went into the Socialist Republic of Manhattan yesterday to hear an off-the-record talk by a former U.S. senator who really knows the political ropes. 

His assessment is that we're at the beginning of this campaign, and I agree.  Almost anything can happen from now on.  Consider:  On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton can become the underdog if Bernie keeps denting her numbers.   And/or, Hillary can be crushed by the FBI probe.  In that case, would Bernie be nominated?  Probably not.  Obama would want Biden, and Biden could step in, choose Elizabeth Warren early as his V.P. choice to pacify the "progressives," and steal Bernie's thunder.

Or, Hillary's minority-group firewall could hold, and Bernie could become an asterisk.

On the GOP side, Trump could win primary after primary and still not get the nomination because he's only polling in the low thirties.  Not enough to win.  Jeb, who is well financed, can run all the way to the convention.  Ted Cruz, a conservative favorite, could do the same.  You could literally have an open convention.  After a certain number of convention ballots, delegates are free to go anywhere. 

Or...former Mayor Mike Bloomberg of New York could get in.  No fundraisers needed.  Heavy campaigning experience.  As we've noted, he could, early on, poll at 20%, meaning he's the kingmaker, able to take more votes from one side than the other.

Or...another candidate can get in.  Do not underestimate John Kerry.  He ran for president in 2004 and almost won.  Family has lots of money from his wife's ketchup fortune (Heinz).  The Dems might see him as safe.  Yes, he's a constant screw-up, but a friendly media can deal with that.

Or...a major event, like a terrorist attack, could change everything. 

Or...the economy can spiral downward and mass layoffs begin.

Or...gas at the pump could go to $1.50, the Dems would say that if the GOP were elected, prices would soar again.  They could be believed.

Or...biology could intervene.  President William Henry Harrison died on his 32nd day in office.  So, we could inaugurate someone in January and have someone changing the drapes in February.

It's early, it's early, and very exciting.

February 11,  2016